Market Commentary · Q2 2026
Investing and the time frame that you are using to view your investments can cause a lot of confusion. A good investment can be great in the long term but a disaster in the short run, and of course, the opposite may be true.
Where are we today in the stock market? Using the SPY ETF (S&P 500 Index) to represent the “stock market”, the chart below shows we are near an all time high and that a pull back from this point would not be unusual. At this point, the price pattern does not indicate a change from the positive growth of recent years.
Event driven corrections are often not predictable and can cause a 1/3 to 1/2 correction of the prior run-up (note circled part of chart showing the Tariff correction). These are called corrections because the fundamental earnings growth and market pricing of the companies making up the market were only threatened on a short-term basis.
So how does “Time” play a role in “Success” or “Failure” of investment performance? If you focus on the monthly performance, you cannot see the overall trend, so the perception of success can vary greatly.
The best time frame to us is the one that is related to your use of the money for purchases requiring a significant amount of money. If you are away from a major purchase in a few months, then the monthly variation can be very significant. If this is retirement money with 10 years or more to go, then the corrections are not meaningful.
If you are planning to draw income, the corrections are of less importance as only a small percentage is being sold during these negative time periods in an overall positive growth period.
— With regards, John, Peter & Jack
CFP® · ChFC® · Series 65
Past performance success is not a predictor and cannot guarantee future investment results.